Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts
This study examines the change in current 100year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today’s 100-year drought is estimated to occur 1...
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A dynamically motivated statistical forecasting scheme for eastern Mediterranean winter rainfall is presented. The scheme is based on North Atlantic sea level pressure precursors. The resulting forecasts are robust and statistically significant at ;13 months lead time, and improve at ;7 months lead. It is suggested that these forecasts form a foundation for an operational early-warning system f...
متن کاملHistorical Mediterranean droughts: data and models
Historical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach S. Brewer, S. Alleaume, J. Guiot, and A. Nicault CEREGE, CNRS/Université Paul Cézanne UMR 6635, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence cedex, France Centre d’Etudes Nordiques, Université Laval, Ste Foy, Québec GlK7P4, Canada Received: 31 March 2006 – Accepted: 4 September 2006 – Published: 12 September 2006 Corr...
متن کاملHistorical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach
We present here a new method for comparing the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with proxybased reconstructions, using time series of reconstructed and simulated climate parameters. The method uses k-means clustering to allow comparison between different periods that have similar spatial patterns, and a fuzzy logic-based distance measure in order to take reconstruction errors into ac...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Advances in Geosciences
سال: 2007
ISSN: 1680-7359
DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-12-145-2007